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Prediction for CME (2024-08-10T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-10T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32684/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME faintly seen towards the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the NE of STEREO A COR2. Overlaps in the field of view with CME: 2024-08-10T03:12:00-CME-001. The likely source is an M5.3 flare peaking at 2024-08-10T02:37Z from AR 3780 (approx. S08W02) with associated eruption with dimming and post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195. No CME arrival signature in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-13T15:21Z (-9.73h, +7.48h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/08/10 03:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE & ESE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 16:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW & WNW Direction
POS Difference: 2:00
POS Midpoint: 15:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:20

Numeric View/Impact Type: 4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.84
Travel Time: ~6.84 * 12:20 = 84:21

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-13T15:21Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/10 22:46Z

Lead Time: 64.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-10T22:49Z

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